Labels: 2006 College Football Blogger Awards, Football

I'd feel bad about this loss if I wasn't this big and going home to the twins.

This was by no means a bad loss in losing to #19 Notre Dame, but this was a bad loss in terms of reality. The team allowed 61 points in the first half and 103 total. As my friends would say, “are you joking?!”

We lose when we allow 11 three pointers to fall for ND. In years past we have stuck with the zone through the whole game, surviving at the Joyce center several games by letting them shoot themselves out of the game in the second half. This did not happen in this game as ND’s offense continued to be consistent down the stretch. They managed to close a game, unlike the Orange.

It is also a fairly sure bet then when Eric Devendorf does not score any points we will probably fall short. 0-6 from three point territory and 0-11 field goals in 26 minutes is a pretty poor outing. At least he only committed two turnovers. Scoring is the enemy of losing.

We, once again, committed more turnovers then Notre Dame. Josh Wright and Paul Harris combined for half of the 16 we committed. Paul, I again will tolerate because he is a freshman and basically building his resume as a four year player/lottery pick if he is lucky. Wright, on the other hand, continues his campaign as the teams ATM. Outstanding job handling the ball boys.

Nichols performed admirably contributing 29 points, including three baskets from behind the arc. A solid effort, but with no supporting cast it still leads to a loss.

Terrence Roberts contributed 20, but again Syracuse cannot live on D&T alone. Devendorf and Wright need to contribute as well, along with the Canadian Sensation Andy Rautins, if we hope to win against top competition in the Big East.

We had more rebounds then Notre Dame, however converting these rebounds was the key, which of course didn’t happen, especially for Devendorf.

All in all a disappointing defensive effort, coupled with offensive woes that The ‘Cuse just couldn’t overcome. I mentioned in the last essay that this team needed a serious dose of heart and leadership. It appears that going against #19 Notre Dame was not the game to try that. Now the team needs heart, leadership, and a big dose of consistency. Field goal droughts, Devendorf scoring zero, and Nichols hating play in the Big East are all the enemies of this team right now. The team needs to play with hustle, but playing intelligent basketball that maximizes the possessions they have. While the team struggles to find out who they are and what they are made of, the rest of the Orange Nation wonders if we can stand seeing a team in the NIT. Losing in the first round is tough enough, but to not make the tournament or have 20 wins might be a bigger shock and create more of an outrage. Of course it is not like Boeheim is in danger of losing his job. Matt Glaude will break down the major implications for the teams tournament status, but as of right now we are in danger of ending up for way too many games in Madison Square Garden.

Labels: Basketball, Big East

These kids are really starting to piss me off.

Labels: Basketball, Big East

Syracuse students agree: ESPNU = Bush League

As always, for an exhaustive explanation of Pomeroy's methodology and statistical theory, this link may be a useful resource.

When Syracuse is on Defense

No matter how well a zone defense is played, the strategy is susceptible to defeat in two instances: against solid outside shooting and interior offensive rebounding.

Unfortunately for the Orange, Notre Dame does both very well.

Led by seniors Colin Falls and Russell Carter, the Irish are one of the most perimeter-oriented teams in the country (54th in 3PA/FGA). Converting on 39.0 percent of its long-distance attempts, the Irish are exploiting the theory governing effective field goal percentage. Thus, unlike recent editions of the Irish, Notre Dame is cashing on its offensive philosophy of shooting from deep early and often.

Augmenting Notre Dame's ability to convert from behind the arc is the Irish's ability on the offensive glass. With only four players under 6' 7", Notre Dame has crashed the glass and wiped them pretty clean. This has led to numerous second-chance attempts, which has undoubtedly effected the team's two-point shooting percentage (52.9 percent on the season).

The question, therefore, is how Syracuse can combat this twofold attack. The Orange has performed well against perimeter-oriented clubs (Syracuse's opponents are only cashing in on 31.2 percent of its three-point attempts while registering a astronomical 39.0 3PA/FGA value). Against Notre Dame, however, Jim Boeheim's zone defense may not have enough juice to neutralize the Irish attack considering how well Notre Dame has crashed the glass (as noted above, Syracuse is in the bottom of the country in defensive offensive rebounding percentage).

The solution: a little more man-to-man defense. Syracuse has premised its reputation on sound zone defense and, accordingly, should not simply abandon it because the Orange is playing a sound perimeter club. However, a little defensive variety -- whether it be through some timely full court pressure or otherwise -- may disrupt the Notre Dame attack.

In short, the less comfortable the Irish feel from the outside, the better chance Syracuse has at victory.

When Syracuse is on Offense

Labels: Basketball, Big East, Preview

The sky is not falling yet, but it is getting pretty dark.

Two heartbreaking losses in the span of six days has dulled Syracuse's consideration for tournament inclusion. However, the losses are not irreparable; over the Orange's final slate of nine contests, Syracuse will face seven clubs with RPI values within the nation's top 100.

The moral of the story: put down the bleach and razor blades.

Resume and Factors of Relevance
The foregoing data is accurate only to the date and time of publication. As this feature will not receive a daily update (rather, a weekly update will take place), its particular factual accuracy should not receive great weight as the week subsequently passes. However, it should stand as a solid indicator of what Syracuse has accomplished this season and what the Orange must yet achieve in order to secure another NCAA Tournament invitation.

With respect to the status variables included, each variable relates to one of five possible states of affairs:

1. Great;
2. Good;
3. Adequate;
4. Troubling; and
5. Terrible.

Status variables ranging above "adequate" indicate facts and circumstances conducive to receiving a bid. Status variables ranging below "adequate" indicate facts and circumstances of concern -- relative to the rest of the nation, Syracuse needs to improve its position. The status variable of "adequate" indicates a hold position -- depending on what other colleges or universities accomplish, Syracuse's current status may or may not be good enough to merit an invitation.

Notes
Invitation Status Downgrade
The downgrade is primarily attributable to three factors: 1) Losing to St. John's on the road (Syracuse's first defeat to a team ranked outside the RPI top 100); 2) The Orange's 6-4 "Last 10" record; and 3) The static nature of the Big East's standing relative to the rest of the country.

Despite the downgrade from "good" to "adequate," Syracuse stands in a fairly good position relative to the rest of the nation. Despite the two consecutive losses, the Orange fell only seven positions in the RPI. However, its overall strength of schedule ranking remained steady while its non-conference strength of schedule rose seven positions. Moreover, it's non-conference RPI value also rose considerably.

What does this mean? Well, in short, if Syracuse can maintain is projected pace, the Orange's final RPI and strength of schedule values should be consummate with those of tournament-invited clubs.

The logic behind such a position is fairly straightforward and tied directly to the formulas designed to calculate such values.

With respect to the RPI, the formula utilized looks as follows:

1/4*(Winning Percentage) + 1/2*(Opponents' Average Winning Percentage) + 1/4*(Opponents' Opponents' Winning Percentage)

Given the fact that the formula puts such a strong emphasis on opponents winning percentages, Syracuse should complete the season with a strong RPI value. In pertinent part, as more than half of Syracuse's opponents this season are projected to finish with 19 wins or more this season, the formula should play to the Orange's advantage (assuming, of course, that Syracuse does not implode over its final nine contests).

Similarly, the strength of schedule formula also benefits the Orange:

(2/3) Opponents Winning Pct. + (1/3) Opponent's Opponents Winning Pct

As noted above, Syracuse should take advantage of this formula as its slate looks to be one of the tougher in the country.

In short, worrying about the RPI right now is the least of Syracuse's worries. What the Orange needs to do currently is improve its conference record and its overall record. If Syracuse should finish with at least 20 wins and around 10 conference victories, the Orange should merit invitation consideration despite the lack of "marquee" victories.

Last 10 Games
Position is exactly the same as last week. Syracuse simply needs to make a good showing down the stretch. A home victory Tuesday against Notre Dame would be an excellent start.

However, if Syracuse sticks to its predicted path, the Orange will close out the regular season with a 4-6 record "last 10 games" record. Clearly, a run into the Big East Tournament would be necessary to merit stronger consideration.

Who To Root For
Three teams: St. John's, Villanova, and Marquette. These are, respectively, the Orange's worst loss and best victories. Mitigating the damage and elevating the positives would certainly do some good.

General Fodder

• At this stage, I am not sure why Texas is generally considered to be a tournament club. Its marquee victories are Arkansas and Oklahoma (two average teams) and its quantitative values are weaker than Syracuse's. Unless the Longhorns do something markedly impressive over its final 10 games, Texas should not have a stronger shot at the tournament than Syracuse.



• Connecticut is destined for the NIT. It is just that simple. Connecticut's only saving grace for the season is that it will defeat Syracuse in the Carrier Dome as I will be in attendance for the Orange-Huskies contest on February 17th.



• Barometer Team To Watch: Southern Illinois. The Salukis are the poster boys of why people both love and despise the RPI and strength of schedule formulas.
  

Labels: Basketball, NCAA Tournament

If you're a professional in the world of accounting, you obviously know the joys of "busy season." Since I am stuck in the office for the majority of the day, there is no time to put together a standardized preview. Instead, I'll simply link to the applicable material and you can run your own analysis.

Louisville Scouting Report

Louisville Game Plan

Syracuse Scouting Report

Syracuse Game Plan

Labels: Basketball, Preview

One more run for the "Orange Fox."

[Rommel's injury] was a huge loss. When you lose someone like that, it’s a focal point of opposing defenses and a midfielder of that caliber you don’t see very often.

* * * * *
He’s a guy who has been there for four, five years. He’s got tons of experience. He’s veteran on the field. He takes us through practice and he helps us out as much as he can. It’s a huge help having someone like that back.

Greg would have been a big loss for us if he hadn’t come back, with his leadership and him being familiar with everything here.

Labels: Lacrosse, Preview

Boom goes the dynamite!

[Syracuse has] three attackmen that are probably the best in the country and the three backing them up they could play at any other school in the country.

“He’s one of our captains and our leading point returner so there will be a little bit of pressure on him for that but he’s got some guys that will really help him out. I think one of the things that Michael’s always done is he’s always picked things up very quickly. He understands all his positions so being a captain, being a guy back with a lot of experience, it’s very easy for him to tell guys where to go on the field. He’s like having another coach out there and he’s done a terrific job.”

We have Dan Hardy and Kenny Nims back at attack. They like dodging from behind and they can both feed the ball, so I think it’s going to be scary with the shooters we have up top and down low.

“Max has done a good job especially for a freshman. He is very much like Mike Leveille. He picks things up very quickly and lacrosse is really turning into a thinking man’s game both on offense and defense with so many packages of zones, man-to-man’s, shutoffs, and you have to be aware of what the other team is doing. Max is one of those guys who can recognize that quickly.”

Labels: Lacrosse, Preview

Don't think I didn't bring a gun with me.

Labels: Basketball, Big East

Losing to St. John's is a sin punishable by excommunication.

Labels: Basketball, Big East

Labels: Lacrosse, Videos

1. Great;
2. Good;
3. Adequate;
4. Troubling; and
5. Terrible.

Status variables ranging above "adequate" indicate facts and circumstances conducive to receiving a bid. Status variables ranging below "adequate" indicate facts and circumstances of concern -- relative to the rest of the nation, Syracuse needs to improve its position. The status variable of "adequate" indicates a hold position -- depending on what other colleges or universities accomplish, Syracuse's current status may or may not be good enough to merit an invitation.

Notes
Invitation Status Upgrade
Despite Syracuse's woeful second-half performance against Cincinnati, I upgraded the Orange's invitation status one notch. The elevation is attributable to three factors:

1. Syracuse's road/neutral record is terrific and given the fact that the majority of the Orange's remaining road contests -- St. John's, Louisville, Connecticut, South Florida, Providence, and Villanova -- are winnable, there should be sufficient "bonus RPI points" available for Syracuse to accumulate.


2. After running some predictory models this week, I am fairly certain that Syracuse's rank in the RPI and its Strength of Schedule should finish somewhere inside the nation's top 30 by the end of the season. The NCAA Dance Card agrees with my assessment, although it takes a different route to the conclusion.


3. From a subjective standpoint, Syracuse has begun to generate some national attention from the main stream media. The more the Orange stays in the conversation for a bid, the better chance Syracuse has at creating pathways to garnering an invitation.

"Marquee Victories"
This has been a touchstone for many critics and pessimists, but the factual circumstance is a red herring (or at least it should be).

The issue turns on consistency of selection methodology. The Selection Committee has at its disposal a host of criteria to determine whether a college or university merits an invitation. Amongst those criteria includes subjective evaluations and perceptions of victories. That perception, however, must be tempered by other factual data such as RPI, total victories, conference standing, strength of schedule, and actual performance.

It is because of these other points of emphasis that I believe that Syracuse's lack of "marquee victories" should not ultimately doom the Orange. In short, Syracuse has done enough -- at least currently -- in other scrutinized areas to merit a bid.

Last 10 Games
This is going to be an area to keep an eye on. Syracuse's final four regular season games features alternating road and home contests against a handful of the Big East's better clubs -- Connecticut, Providence, Georgetown, and Villanova.

Should Syracuse drop these last four games, the Orange may or may not need to win a Big East Tournament game to ensure an invitation. However, given the overall resume that I expect Syracuse to accumulate, such a "must-win" may be unnecessary.

Who To Root For
It's easy: Drexel and Wichita State. These are the only two potential anchors on Syracuse's RPI.

General Fodder

• If I'm a Connecticut fan, I am somewhat concerned at this juncture. I'm not saying that Connecticut is going to miss the Big Dance, but the Huskies have more work to do at this point than the Orange.


• At this point, I think that the Big East gets at minimum six bids to the show; at maximum, seven.


• Syracuse's two contests against St. John's is a double-edged sword. There is great potential to win both contests, but the games will not help the Orange's RPI and Strength of Schedule significantly (even with the bonus points for road victories). Plus, St. John's has a legitimate chance to win both games.
  

Labels: Basketball, NCAA Tournament

Why do you hate me?

Labels: Basketball

It's fine. You're beating the crowd to Faegan's if you get tossed.

Labels: Basketball, Big East, Drinking, ESPN

I love the halftime orange slices!

Labels: Basketball

Labels: Basketball

1. Great;
2. Good;
3. Adequate;
4. Troubling; and
5. Terrible.

Status variables ranging above "adequate" indicate facts and circumstances conducive to receiving a bid. Status variables ranging below "adequate" indicate facts and circumstances of concern -- relative to the rest of the nation, Syracuse needs to improve its position. The status variable of "adequate" indicates a hold position -- depending on what other colleges or universities accomplish, Syracuse's current status may or may not be good enough to merit an invitation.

. . . but don't underrank the Broncos!

Another year, another great BlogPoll effort. For the sake of putting a bow on the season:

Rank	Team	Delta
1	Florida	2
2	Boise State	16
3	Ohio State	2
4	Southern Cal	--
5	LSU	--
6	Wisconsin	2
7	Louisville	1
8	Michigan	6
9	West Virginia	5
10	Auburn	2
11	Rutgers	4
12	Oklahoma	5
13	California	8
14	Texas	3
15	Arkansas	6
16	Brigham Young	7
17	Oregon State	7
18	Wake Forest	7
19	Boston College	6
20	TCU	6
21	Georgia	5
22	Notre Dame	9
23	Hawaii	3
24	Penn State	2
25	Virginia Tech	15

Dropped Out: Nebraska (#16), Texas A&M (#19), Tennessee (#20), Georgia Tech (#22).

Notes:

- Should I have included Nebraska? Probably, considering the Cornhuskers only dropped a 17-14 contest against Auburn. However, I'm not so worried about it that it merits going back into the widget and altering my ballot.

While most media outlets having been lauding Demetris Nichols for his performance progression over the last four years, the player that has seen the strongest rise in his contributions to the Orange is senior center Darryl "Mookie" Watkins.

As a late edition to Jim Boehiem's Class of 2003 recruiting effort, Watkins came to the Salt City as a guy with a lot of raw potential. He always had the ability to block shots and get off of the floor, but question marks surrounded his overall fundamentals comprehension.

Four years later, Watkins has become an indispensable cog in the Syracuse attack on both ends of the floor. He is a dominating defensive force that has managed to control his penchant for picking up fouls. On offense, Watkins has developed a nice touch and stands as a reliable if not solid offensive rebounder.

He has, for all intents and purposes, become Syracuse's first two-dimensional center since Etan Thomas. And if Syracuse is going to make a run over its last 14 games, Watkins needs to continue his maturation.

As always, for an exhaustive explanation of Pomeroy's methodology and statistical theory, this link may be a useful resource.

When Syracuse is on Defense

There's no need to sugarcoat the obvious: the Big East has not seen an offense this horrible since the peach basket era.

The Rutgers offense does nothing well. To wit:

• Three-point field goal percentage -- 31.4 (268);
• Two-point field goal percentage -- 45.1 (260);
• Free throw percentage -- 65.7 (238); and
• Assists per field goal made -- 43.6 (330)

And this is against the 106th strongest schedule in the country.

In the context of Rutgers' offensive strategy, the Scarlet Knights would like to play a fairly slow contest. With an adjusted tempo value of just over 64 possessions per game (the 283rd fastest attack in the country), Rutgers' mentality is to keep opponents from possessing the leather and scoring in transition.

Unfortunately for the Scarlet Knights, however, the pace of offensive play is not going to dictate Rutgers' success. As noted above, Rutgers simply cannot shoot the basketball. As Ken Pomeroy notes, the absolute key to Rutgers' offensive efficiency is the team's offensive effective shooting percentage. When the Scarlet Knights covert their attempts more efficiently than their opponents, Rutgers wins (save the contest against Lehigh).

With Syracuse holding its opponents under 44 percent in effective field goal percentage, however, the Scarlet Knights are in deep trouble.

The key for Syracuse, consequently, is to sit in its zone defense and let Rutgers shoot itself out of the basketball game. As noted, the Scarlet Knights are just horrendous at converting from distance. With the 2-3 zone's inherent proclivity for forcing opponents to resort to three-point attempts, if Syracuse concentrates on crashing the defensive glass -- which it did admirably against Marquette -- the Orange should be fine.

When Syracuse is on Offense

• Three-point shooting percentage -- 40.0 (317);
• Two-point shooting percentage -- 46.9 (114);
• Free throw percentage -- 70.4 (240); and
• Assists per field goal made -- 61.2 (281)

On the effect of Mike Jones transferring:
“He hasn’t played a minute for us this year that counts. He hasn’t helped us one minute this year. He’s a three-man, and we got a guy in that position that’s pretty good. If he was a four-man he could help us, but he’s not. He knew it coming in that we had a three-man, and he just didn’t want to wait until next year.”

• That was an old fashioned Big East war. Physical play on both sides of the floor, interesting inside-outside play, and both teams exhibited a ton of resiliance. It does not get much more fun that that.



• I've already seen comments on both Syracuse and Pittsburgh-oriented internet sites about poor refereeing. The comments, obviously, are from different perspectives at various points in the contest (intuitively when either team was trailing or struggling), but in either instance, the comments are unwarranted. I am a strong believer that non-participant onlookers should never "blame" a referee for the outcome of the game. Referees do not play passively in transition defense. They do not create commit turnovers on sloppy decisionmaking.
  
  In short, to blame the referees is to assume that the players' performances do not ultimately control the outcome of the game.



• Syracuse's play thus far this season has been lukewarm at best. Tonight, however, the team showed some much needed consistency and competitiveness. All in all, the Orange probably played above its head tonight, but that is at least heartening given the circumstances it was forced to play under.



• Josh Wright's second half absence is somewhat concerning. Eric Devendorf made some unquestionably boneheaded decisions with the basketball in the final stanza, yet Boeheim kept him at the point, apparently under the hope that Devendorf would make more positive plays than negative ones. Given the fact that Devendorf is still getting his basketball legs under him, the reliance on Devendorf down the stretch may have been a fatal mistake. Especially after Wright's acceptable first half effort.



• I'm not sure what to think about Pittsburgh right now, but I think that the Panthers are pretty good. Pittsburgh, at least to me, does not appear (at least at this point) to be an Elite Eight squad, but the Panthers do have the potential to grow into a Final Four squad over the next couple of months. With that said, Syracuse should take tonight as an indication that it can lay some haymakers on a good club and have the opportunity to secure victory in a game it did not deserve to win.



• The papers tomorrow will likely echo this sentiment, but Syracuse's lackadaisical post-halftime effort ultimately doomed the Orange's opportunity for success. That was truly disgusting and a great indication to the nation of Syracuse's fatal flaw.



• However, other than those brief four or five minutes to start the second half, Syracuse seemed to show signs of improvement. Granted, this is not a championship club, but the Orange's effort on the glass (both offensively and defensively) and its ability to stretch Pittsburgh's defense with solid outside shooting should be an indication that 20 wins is a reasonable possibility. So, if you think that Syracuse did not play well tonight, you are probably extrapolating and isolated moment in the game and not understanding how well Syracuse dominated over extended stretches throughout the game.



• Paul Harris, despite his flaws, displayed why an athlete of his stature can compete at this level despite not knowing how to shoot a basketball. Once he figures out how to play basketball -- and Boeheim certainly has his work cut out for him in that department -- he is going to dominate the hardwood on both ends.


• Now, on the Kendall-Roberts situation. Whether Kendall intentionally created the contact or he accidently smacked Roberts because he was bumped is actually a nonissue. Moments like that are natually part of a physical game, especially in the Big East. To equate the incident to the Shumpert eye poke against Pittsburgh in the 2001 Big East Tournament. In short, shit happens; get over it.