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Pythagorean Win Theorem: Big East

Ask and ye shall receive.

Frequent reader Tom sent a message on Monday asking whether I thought Syracuse was under or overachieving this season. Rather than enter a lengthy discussion describing my position (which, of course, will be left for the close of the 2006 Orange campaign), I decided to put together a Pythagorean Win Theorem table charting how Syracuse and its Big East brethren have performed thus far this season.

For the uninitiated, Bill James' Pythagorean Win Theorem projects how a team should perform by weighing points/runs scored against points/runs against. Instead of using actual point values this year, however, I'm using the values generated through my efficiency formulae. Inherently, James' methodology works on a theoretical level; there's no reason the inputs should vary from that platform.

TOB -- Total Offensive Benefit
TDB -- Total Defensive Benefit
A W/L -- Actual won/loss record
A W/L% -- Actual winning percentage
P W/L -- Pythagorean Win Theorem won/loss record
P W/L% -- Pythagorean Win Theorm winning percentage
Margin -- Difference between actual and Pythagorean won/loss record
Margin % -- Difference between actual and Pythagorean winning percentage

Pythagorean Win Theorem -- Big East (Through 10.22.06)

TeamTOBTDBA W/LA W/L%P W/LP W/L%MarginMargin %
West Virginia231.41788.8337-01.0006-1.906+1.094
South Florida167.583122.5835-3.6255-3.6770-.052

Notable Underachievers
1. Connecticut
2. Pittsburgh

Notable Overachievers
1. Louisville
2. West Virginia

1 Responses to “Pythagorean Win Theorem: Big East”

  1. # Anonymous Joe

    What exponent did you use in the Pythagorean Win Theorem?  

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