Frequent reader Tom sent a message on Monday asking whether I thought Syracuse was under or overachieving this season. Rather than enter a lengthy discussion describing my position (which, of course, will be left for the close of the 2006 Orange campaign), I decided to put together a Pythagorean Win Theorem table charting how Syracuse and its Big East brethren have performed thus far this season.
For the uninitiated, Bill James' Pythagorean Win Theorem projects how a team should perform by weighing points/runs scored against points/runs against. Instead of using actual point values this year, however, I'm using the values generated through my efficiency formulae. Inherently, James' methodology works on a theoretical level; there's no reason the inputs should vary from that platform.
TOB -- Total Offensive Benefit
TDB -- Total Defensive Benefit
A W/L -- Actual won/loss record
A W/L% -- Actual winning percentage
P W/L -- Pythagorean Win Theorem won/loss record
P W/L% -- Pythagorean Win Theorm winning percentage
Margin -- Difference between actual and Pythagorean won/loss record
Margin % -- Difference between actual and Pythagorean winning percentage
Pythagorean Win Theorem -- Big East (Through 10.22.06)
|Team||TOB||TDB||A W/L||A W/L%||P W/L||P W/L%||Margin||Margin %|
2. West Virginia